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San Diego Real Estate Trends 2017-2019

San Diego Real Estate Trends

Let’s take a look at the San Diego Real Estate trends over the past three years. With a lot of recent talk about a recession, I wanted to address this topic. Many people’s minds correlate a recession to a housing crisis where home prices will plummet and there will be short sales and foreclosures on every block because this is what we saw happen in 2008.

By definition, a recession is “a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.” The 2008 recession happened because the housing market crashed, housing markets do not crash because of recessions.

Nationally, let’s take a look at what happened in each recession. In the 1980 recession, home prices rose by 6.1%, in 1981 home prices rose by 3.5%, in 1991 home prices fell by 1.9%, in 2001 home prices grew by 6.6% and in 2008, home prices fell by 19.7%.

Monthly Indicators- August 2019

This is a report from the San Diego Association of Realtors “As the summer draws to a close, multiple opposing factors and trends are competing to define the direction of the real estate market. After the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate on July 31, 30-year mortgage rates continued to decline, approaching all-time low last seen in 2016. Yet most experts agree these reductions are unlikely to bring sufficient relief, at least in the short term, for first time home buyers. The lack of affordable inventory and the persistence of historically high housing prices continue to affect the housing market, leading to lower-than-expected existing home sales at the national level.

Closed Sales decreased by 3.8% for detached homes and 6.9% for attached homes. Pending sales increased 18.4% for detached homes and 15.1% for attached homes. Inventory decreased 20.9% for detached homes and 8.6% for attached homes.

The median sales price was down 0.8% to $660,000 for detached homes but increased by 3.5% to $440,000 for attached homes. Days on Market increased 10% for detached homes and 24% for attached homes. Supply decreased 20% for detached homes but remained flat for attached homes.

As many homeowners refinanced their home to take advantage of declining interest rates, consumer confidence in housing was reported to be at historically high levels. Even so, real estate professionals will need to monitor the market for signs of continued imbalances. Although the inventory of affordable homes at this point remains largely stable, it is stable at historically low levels which may continue to push prices higher and affect potential buyers across the U.S.”

Take a look at these graphs and data provided by the San Diego Association of Realtors to compare San Diego’s Real Estate Trends in both attached and detached homes.

Detached Market Overview-San Deigo Real Estate Trends

San Diego Real Estate Trends

New detached home listings from August 2018 to August 2019 decreased by 17.2%. New listings year to date in 2018 decreased by 3.5% in 2019.

Pending sales for detached homes went up 18% from August 2018 to August 2019. Pending sales year to date increased by 2.6% from 2018 to 2019

Closed sales in August 2019 decreased by 3.8% from 2018 and decreased by 3.3% from 2018 to 2019 YTD.

Median Sales Price of detached homes decreased by 0.8% in August 2018 compared to August 2019. YTD median sales price in 2018 increased by 1.5% in 2019.

The Average Sales Price of detached homes increased by 3.2% in August 2019 compared to August 2018. YTD median sales price in 2018 increased by 1.5%.

Dollar volume of closed sales (in millions) decreased by 0.7% from August 2018 to August 2019 and YTD dollar volume decreased by 2.3% from 2018 to 2019.

The percentage of the original price received in August 2018 grew by 0.3% in August 2019. Year to date from 2018 to 2019 fell 0.3%

Days on market until sale in August 2018 increased by 10% from August 2018 to August 2019. YTD days on the market increased by 13.8%.

The Housing Affordability Index increased by 12% from August 2018 to 2019. YTD housing affordability increased by 7.7%

Attached Market Overview-San Deigo Real Estate Trends

New Listings for attached homes decreased by 3.4% from 2018 to 2019. New listings for attached homes decreased by 0.8% from 2018 to 2019.

Pending sales increased by 15.1% from August 2018 to August 2019. YTD 2018 to 2019 increased by 1.7%

Closed Sales decreased by 6.9% from August 2018 to August 2019. YTD 2018 to 2019 decreased by 8.2%

Median Sales Price increased by 3.5% from August 2018 to 2019 and YTD 2018 to 2019 increased by 1.9%

Average Sale Price increased by 4% from August 2018 to August 2019 and YTD 2018 to 2019 increased by 0.3%

Dollar volume of closed sales (in millions) decreased by 3.1% from August 2018 to 2019 and YTD 2018 to 2019 decreased by 7.9%

The percentage of the original price received increased by 0.1% from August 2018 to August 2019. YTD 2018 to 2019 decreased by 0.7%

Days on the market until sale increased by 24% from August 2018 to August 2019. YTD 2018 to 2019 increased by 29.2%

The housing affordability index increased 6.4% from August 2018 to 2019 and increased by 8.9% YTD 2018 to 2019.

New Listings

San Diego Real Estate Trends

Detached August New Listings

In August 2017, the number of new listings for detached homes was down 9.2% from August 2016 leaving inventory at 2,914. In 2018, the number of new listings for detached homes grew 15.5% to 3,365 in August 2018. In August 2019 that number dropped 17% to 2,786.

Attached August New Listings

In August 2017, the number of new listings for attached homes grew 1.6% in August 2017, with inventory totalling at 1,438. In August 2018, the number of new listings for attached homes grew 15.8 to 1,665. In August 2019 inventory dropped 3.4% to 1,609.

Detached New Listings Year to Date

In August 2017 the year to date number for new listings was down 5% from 2016 and totalled 23,603 in 2017 year to date. In 2018, that number grew by 4.3% to 24,609. In 2019, that number fell 3.5% to 23,759.

Attached New Listings Year to Date

In August 2017 the year to date number for new listings was down 7% from 2016 and totalled 11,190 in 2017 year to date. In 2018, that number grew by 7.5% to 12,031. In 2019, that number fell .8% to 11,932.

Pending Sales

Detached August Pending Sales

In August 2017, the number of pending detached home sales was down 5.4% from August 2016 leaving pending sales at 2,123 in August 2017. In August 2018, the number of detached pending sales fell 12% to 1,862. In August 2019 pending sales bounced back 18.4% at 2,204 pending sales.

Attached August Pending Sales

In August 2017, the number of pending attached home sales was down 8.8% from August 2016 leaving pending sales for attached homes at 1,109 in August 2017. In  August 2018, the number of attached pending sales fell 12% to 976. In 2019, the number of pending sales grew 15%, to 1,123.

Detached Pending Sales Year to Date

In the August 2017 year to date, the number of pending detached home sales was up 1.6% from the August 2016 year to date leaving pending sales for detached homes at 17,503 in the August 2017 year to date. In the August 2018 year to date, the number of detached pending sales grew 8% to 15,618. In 2019, the number of detached pending sales grew again by 2.6%, to 16,019.

Attached Pending Sales Year to Date

In the August 2017 year to date, the number of pending attached home sales was down 3.8% from the August 2016 year to date leaving pending sales for attached homes at 8,771 in the August 2017 year to date. In the August 2018 year to date, the number of attached pending sales fell 7% to 8,157. In 2019, the number of attached pending sales fell by 1.7%, to 8,022.

You can take a look at the homes in our different markets and communities here